Advertising World Braces for Uncertainty and, Changes Under Trump.
A Wall Street Journal Report
Several top radio execs have described the “dampening effect” that the sometimes-vicious presidential campaign had on overall ad spend in early fourth quarter. Now, several senior-level ad agency execs say the advertising chill could continue after the election, due to uncertainty over what a Donald Trump administration might do in the areas of trade and regulatory policy.
“I believe there will be a slowdown” in the first quarter, Publicis Groupe CEO Maurice Levy told The Wall Street Journal, as marketers take a “wait-and-see” approach to Trump’s election.
During times of uncertainty, marketers typically hold back on spending. “Uncertainty is bad for ad spending growth,” Jonathan Barnard, head of forecasting for Zenith, told the Journal. Barnard isn’t calling for an “apocalyptic pullback” but rather said how much belt-tightening occurs will be driven by the economy and specific policy changes the new administration makes. Should Trump make good on promises to revamp trade policies and deport illegal immigrants, the country’s economic growth could weaken, which would diminish ad spending, Barnard said. Trump has promised 35% tariffs on cars imported from Mexico, which could have repercussions for the auto industry, radio’s top ad category.
“It’s plausible that if tariffs are applied there will be a countrywide impact but there are also specific sectors that may be punished like autos,” Brian Wieser, senior research analyst at Pivotal Research Group, told the Journal. “It depends on policy and that is a massive wild card right now.”
Others were more reserved in their predictions. Jack Hollis, group VP for marketing at Toyota Motor Sales, USA, described Trump’s win as having a “neutral” effect on the industry. “People want to combine politics into the auto industry,” he told Ad Age. But “the auto industry has pretty much stayed on its course with ups and downs that are not politically based. They are economically based.”
Still others said the pullback is likely to last only a short time. And some noted that it remains to be seen how far Trump goes with the more controversial promises he made during the heat of the campaign. “It’s going to take a significant amount of time to assess the implications beyond the short term,” Martin Sorrell, founder and CEO of WPP, told Ad Age.
Both the American Association of Advertising Agencies and the Association of National Advertisers issued communiqués to members on Wednesday. The 4As warned members to expect “quick action” on tax code reform, something that House speaker Paul Ryan and House Ways and Means Committee chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX) also are major proponents of. Recent tax reform proposals in both the House and the Senate would end the immediate write-off of all advertising expenses and force marketers to amortize 50% of these expenses over 10 years. That would impose a $169 billion-$200 billion increased burden on the ad community during that period alone, the ANA warned in a blog post. “It is likely that protection of full deductibility will be the first item of business that the advertising community has with the new government,” the 4As said. The 4As and other members of the ad community plan to begin talks with new Trump appointees to get a better understanding of what policies the new Administration is likely to follow and how they might impact advertising. “Right